Leganes 3-3 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leganes vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Alaves travel to Estadio Municipal de Butarque to take on Leganes. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leganes stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Leganes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leganes's home record at Estadio Municipal de Butarque: 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Alaves — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Alaves have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Leganes 0.90 PPG, Alaves 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Leganes, 0 for Alaves and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Leganes in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Alaves in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leganes 39% versus Alaves 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leganes 30% | Alaves 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leganes 1.04 xG and Alaves 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leganes attack 0.709 / defence 1.265 | Alaves attack 1.054 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.142. Leganes's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Leganes games / 61 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leganes 26% | Draw 26% | Alaves 48%. Fair-value odds: Leganes 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Alaves 2.08. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Leganes 10% | Alaves 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leganes vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leganes 26% | Draw 26% | Alaves 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Leganes 1.04 / Alaves 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Leganes attack 0.709 / def 1.265 | Alaves attack 1.054 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Alaves (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Leganes xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Alaves xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leganes vs Alaves kick off?
Leganes vs Alaves kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What was the final score in Leganes vs Alaves?
Leganes 3 - 3 Alaves.
Where is Leganes vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What competition is Leganes vs Alaves part of?
Leganes vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Leganes vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Leganes a 26% chance of winning, Alaves a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leganes vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Leganes and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Leganes vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Alaves?
Record (1 meetings): Leganes 0W | Draws 1 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Leganes and Alaves in?
Leganes (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Alaves (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Leganes's attack at 0.71x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Leganes's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
26%
3.85
26%
3.89
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Leganes xG
Total xG
2.56
1.52
Alaves xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
6%
17.65
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leganes vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Leganes and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Leganes and 1.52 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Leganes vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leganes come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 8D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Leganes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 0.91 PPG from 23 outings (5W 6D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leganes on 1.00 PPG, Alaves on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Leganes's home form reads 4W 1D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.73 points per game from 11 outings (2W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leganes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leganes are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.09 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 23 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leganes
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leganes and Alaves in coming into this match?
Leganes have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Alaves have gone 5W 6D 12L in their last 23 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leganes at home or Alaves away?
Leganes's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leganes at home: 1.18 PPG; Alaves away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Leganes or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leganes have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Alaves in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leganes and Alaves runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Leganes
2
Draws
0
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Alaves?
From 2 meetings on record, Leganes have won 0, Alaves have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Leganes and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Leganes 3-3 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leganes see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leganes 18%, Alaves 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Leganes) and 73% (Alaves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 9% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leganes keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Leganes have failed to score in 54% of games; Alaves in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leganes home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leganes play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Leganes's recent matches and 64% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leganes vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Leganes's matches and 73% of Alaves's.
Do Leganes and Alaves tend to score early?
Leganes have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Alaves in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Leganes and Alaves share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 24, as Leganes and Alaves drew 3-3 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 1.04 xG and Alaves 1.52 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Leganes beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alaves outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.71 / defence 1.26 against Alaves attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leganes 26% | Draw 26% | Alaves 48%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 30%, Alaves 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leganes's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Alaves's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leganes 1.00 PPG, Alaves 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Leganes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.