Las Palmas vs Valladolid – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Las Palmas edge out Valladolid 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Las Palmas beat Valladolid 2-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.95 xG and Valladolid 1.05 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.91 / defence 1.19 against Valladolid attack 0.77 / defence 1.46, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 58% | Draw 22% | Valladolid 20%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 60%, Valladolid 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Las Palmas's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Valladolid's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Las Palmas arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights