Las Palmas vs Valladolid – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Las Palmas's attack rating (0.91) and Valladolid's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valladolid's attack (0.77x) against Las Palmas's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.52
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
3.01
1.05
Valladolid xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
3%
35.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.05 for Valladolid, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.