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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Valencia defy the odds to beat Las Palmas 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia beat Las Palmas 2-3 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.38 xG and Valencia 1.33 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Valencia outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Valencia attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 38% | Draw 26% | Valencia 36%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 41%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Las Palmas's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Valencia's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.01 PPG, Valencia 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights