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Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Las Palmas.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Las Palmas 1-3 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.40 xG and Real Sociedad 1.09 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Real Sociedad outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.90 / defence 1.14 against Real Sociedad attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 44% | Draw 27% | Real Sociedad 29%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Real Sociedad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 40%, Real Sociedad 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Las Palmas's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.99. Form held, and they took the win. Las Palmas (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights