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Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Las Palmas 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Las Palmas 0-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.25 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.27 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Las Palmas fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.94 / defence 1.27 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 36% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 37%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 42%, Rayo Vallecano 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Las Palmas's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.00 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights