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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Las Palmas and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 21, as Las Palmas and Osasuna drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.19 xG and Osasuna 1.03 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.89 / defence 1.17 against Osasuna attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 40% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 32%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 40%, Osasuna 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Las Palmas's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Osasuna's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.07 PPG, Osasuna 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights