Las Palmas 2-3 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 37%, yet in-form Mallorca provide a compelling counter-argument — this Las Palmas vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Gran Canaria plays host to Las Palmas versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Las Palmas's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Las Palmas's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Estadio de Gran Canaria this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mallorca have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Mallorca arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Las Palmas have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Mallorca in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Las Palmas, 1 for Mallorca and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Mallorca winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Las Palmas goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 47% versus Mallorca 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 35% | Mallorca 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.14 xG and Mallorca 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.858 / defence 1.055 | Mallorca attack 0.929 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.064. Data: 51 Las Palmas games / 51 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 37% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Mallorca 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Las Palmas at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mallorca (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Las Palmas if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Las Palmas 60% | Mallorca 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 37% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Las Palmas 1.14 / Mallorca 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.858 / def 1.055 | Mallorca attack 0.929 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Mallorca xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Mallorca kick off?
Las Palmas vs Mallorca kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Mallorca?
Las Palmas 2 - 3 Mallorca.
Where is Las Palmas vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Mallorca part of?
Las Palmas vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 37% chance of winning, Mallorca a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Las Palmas and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Mallorca?
Record (2 meetings): Las Palmas 0W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Las Palmas and Mallorca in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Mallorca (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Las Palmas's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.93x) against Las Palmas's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.34
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.18
1.04
Mallorca xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.04 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Las Palmas's recent record stands at 13W 13D 25L from 51 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 19L across 51 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Las Palmas against 1.14 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Las Palmas have managed 7W 9D 9L from 25 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mallorca's away record stands at 5W 8D 12L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Las Palmas are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.84 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 51 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 13W 13D 25L in their last 51 games (1.02 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 13W 19D 19L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Mallorca away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.20 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mallorca go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Las Palmas have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Las Palmas
1
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Mallorca?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 0, Mallorca have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Mallorca 3-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 52%, Mallorca 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Las Palmas and 36% for Mallorca.
On the defensive side: Las Palmas have failed to score in 28% of games; Mallorca in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 52% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Las Palmas vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Las Palmas's recent games and 36% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Mallorca tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Las Palmas 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Las Palmas 2-3 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.14 xG and Mallorca 1.04 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Las Palmas beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mallorca outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.86 / defence 1.05 against Mallorca attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 37% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 35%, Mallorca 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.02 PPG, Mallorca 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.