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Shock result as Leganes defy the odds to beat Las Palmas 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leganes beat Las Palmas 0-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.44 xG and Leganes 1.13 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Las Palmas fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against Leganes attack 0.77 / defence 1.23, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 44% | Draw 26% | Leganes 30%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Leganes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 53%, Leganes 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Las Palmas's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Leganes's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Las Palmas 0.89 PPG, Leganes 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leganes win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Leganes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights