Las Palmas 0-1 Leganes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Las Palmas vs Leganes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Leganes travel to Estadio de Gran Canaria to take on Las Palmas. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Las Palmas stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Leganes have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Leganes's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Las Palmas) versus 0.70 (Leganes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Las Palmas, 1 for Leganes and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Leganes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Las Palmas in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Leganes in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 67% versus Leganes 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 53% | Leganes 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.44 xG and Leganes 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.851 / defence 1.271 | Leganes attack 0.765 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.164. Leganes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Las Palmas's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Las Palmas games / 36 Leganes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 44% | Draw 26% | Leganes 30%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Leganes 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Las Palmas at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Las Palmas offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Las Palmas 60% | Leganes 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Leganes | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 44% | Draw 26% | Leganes 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Las Palmas 1.44 / Leganes 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.851 / def 1.271 | Leganes attack 0.765 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Leganes xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Leganes kick off?
Las Palmas vs Leganes kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Leganes?
Las Palmas 0 - 1 Leganes.
Where is Las Palmas vs Leganes being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Leganes part of?
Las Palmas vs Leganes is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Leganes?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 44% chance of winning, Leganes a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Leganes?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Las Palmas and Leganes will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Leganes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Leganes?
Record (1 meetings): Las Palmas 0W | Draws 0 | Leganes 1W.
What form are Las Palmas and Leganes in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Leganes (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Las Palmas's attack at 0.85x the league average against Leganes's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Leganes's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.82
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.58
1.13
Leganes xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
7%
14.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Leganes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Leganes expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.13 for Leganes, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Leganes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Las Palmas's recent record stands at 8W 8D 20L from 36 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Leganes, meanwhile, have gone 7W 13D 16L across 36 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Las Palmas on 0.89 PPG, Leganes on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Las Palmas have managed 4W 5D 9L from 18 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Leganes's away record stands at 1W 9D 8L across 18 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Las Palmas are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Leganes are on 0.97 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Las Palmas have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Current Season
Leganes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Leganes in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 8W 8D 20L in their last 36 games (0.89 PPG), while Leganes have gone 7W 13D 16L in their last 36 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Leganes away?
Las Palmas's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 0.94 PPG; Leganes away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Las Palmas
0
Draws
2
Leganes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Leganes?
From 2 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 0, Leganes have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Leganes last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Las Palmas 0-1 Leganes.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Leganes?
Leganes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Leganes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 67%, Leganes 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Las Palmas) and 39% (Leganes).
On the defensive side: Leganes in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Leganes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Leganes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Las Palmas's games and 56% of Leganes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Las Palmas vs Leganes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Las Palmas's recent games and 39% of Leganes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Leganes tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Leganes in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Leganes defy the odds to beat Las Palmas 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leganes beat Las Palmas 0-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.44 xG and Leganes 1.13 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Las Palmas fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against Leganes attack 0.77 / defence 1.23, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 44% | Draw 26% | Leganes 30%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Leganes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 53%, Leganes 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Leganes's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 0.89 PPG, Leganes 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leganes win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Leganes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.