🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Getafe defy the odds to beat Las Palmas 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Las Palmas 1-2 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.09 xG and Getafe 0.85 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Getafe outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Getafe attack 0.67 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 41% | Draw 31% | Getafe 28%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Getafe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 38%, Getafe 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Las Palmas's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Getafe's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.11 PPG, Getafe 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights