Granada CF 0-2 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Rayo Vallecano travel to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to take on Granada CF. The game is scheduled for Monday 21 August 2023, 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Granada CF stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 La Liga matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Granada CF have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rayo Vallecano have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayo Vallecano's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rayo Vallecano — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Granada CF, 1 for Rayo Vallecano and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.22 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.998 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.088. Data: 1 Granada CF games / 39 Rayo Vallecano games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Granada CF 35% | Draw 29% | Rayo Vallecano 36%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Rayo Vallecano 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Monday 21 Aug 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 35% | Draw 29% | Rayo Vallecano 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Granada CF 1.22 / Rayo Vallecano 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.860 / def 1.150 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.998 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Rayo Vallecano xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 20:30 on Monday 21 August 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano?
Granada CF 0 - 2 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 35% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (2 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 1 | Rayo Vallecano 1W.
What form are Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano in?
Granada CF (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Granada CF's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Rayo Vallecano's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Rayo Vallecano's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
35%
2.86
29%
3.51
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.47
1.25
Rayo Vallecano xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.25 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Granada CF have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Granada CF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayo Vallecano's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Rayo Vallecano are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Granada CF.
The Goals Picture
Granada CF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Rayo Vallecano in 0%.
Defensively: Rayo Vallecano in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Early Season
Rayo Vallecano
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Granada CF or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rayo Vallecano have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when Rayo Vallecano won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Granada CF's record when hosting Rayo Vallecano specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Granada CF
1
Draws
3
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2024, when Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Granada CF's recent matches and 0% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Granada CF's recent games and 0% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayo Vallecano cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Granada CF 0-2 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.22 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.25 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Granada CF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Rayo Vallecano attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 35% | Draw 29% | Rayo Vallecano 36%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 100%, Rayo Vallecano 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Rayo Vallecano arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Granada CF managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.