Granada CF 0-2 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Rayo Vallecano travel to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to take on Granada CF in La Liga (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Monday 21 August 2023 at 21:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 1 matches, Granada CF stand at 0W 0D 1L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rayo Vallecano — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rayo Vallecano's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rayo Vallecano — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Granada CF, 1 for Rayo Vallecano and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Apr 2022, ended Granada CF 2–2 Rayo Vallecano — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.22 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.998 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.088. Data: built from Granada CF's last 1 games and Rayo Vallecano's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Granada CF 35% | Draw 29% | Rayo Vallecano 36%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.86 | Draw 3.51 | Rayo Vallecano 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Granada CF's last 1 games and Rayo Vallecano's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's sample (Granada CF 1 games, Rayo Vallecano 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, matchday 2 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Monday 21 August 2023 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 35% | Draw 29% | Rayo Vallecano 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Granada CF 1.22 / Rayo Vallecano 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.860 / def 1.150 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.998 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Rayo Vallecano xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano FAQs
What time does Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Monday 21 August 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano?
Granada CF 0 - 2 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano is a La Liga fixture (matchday 2) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 35% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Granada CF's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Rayo Vallecano's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Rayo Vallecano's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Granada CF's last 1 games and Rayo Vallecano's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
35%
2.86
29%
3.51
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.47
1.25
Rayo Vallecano xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.25 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Granada CF have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five.
Rayo Vallecano's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W.
Put side by side, Rayo Vallecano are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Granada CF.
The Goals Picture
Granada CF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Rayo Vallecano in 0%.
Defensively: Rayo Vallecano in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Early Season
Rayo Vallecano
Early Season
Granada CF (Home) vs Rayo Vallecano (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Granada CF
Early Season
Rayo Vallecano
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano Form FAQs
What form are Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Granada CF or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 15 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rayo Vallecano have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Aug 2021, when Rayo Vallecano won Rayo Vallecano 4-0 Granada CF.
Granada CF's record when hosting Rayo Vallecano specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Granada CF
1
Draws
3
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Granada CF have won 0, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 May 2024: Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Granada CF's recent matches and 0% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Granada CF's recent games and 0% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Granada CF's recent matches and 100% of Rayo Vallecano's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayo Vallecano cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Granada CF 0-2 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.22 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.25 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Granada CF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Rayo Vallecano attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 35% | Draw 29% | Rayo Vallecano 36%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 100%, Rayo Vallecano 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Rayo Vallecano arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Granada CF managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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