Granada CF 1-2 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Granada CF at 39%, yet in-form Celta Vigo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Granada CF vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Celta Vigo travel to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to take on Granada CF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Granada CF stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Granada CF's home record at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all La Liga games this season, Celta Vigo have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Celta Vigo away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Celta Vigo — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Granada CF have won 0, Celta Vigo 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Celta Vigo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Granada CF trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Celta Vigo trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 50% versus Celta Vigo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 44% | Celta Vigo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.44 xG and Celta Vigo 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.865 / defence 1.283 | Celta Vigo attack 0.966 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.096. Data: 36 Granada CF games / 74 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 39% | Draw 25% | Celta Vigo 35%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Celta Vigo 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Granada CF are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Celta Vigo (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Granada CF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Granada CF 30% | Celta Vigo 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 39% | Draw 25% | Celta Vigo 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Granada CF 1.44 / Celta Vigo 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.865 / def 1.283 | Celta Vigo attack 0.966 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Granada CF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Celta Vigo xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Granada CF vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Celta Vigo?
Granada CF 1 - 2 Celta Vigo.
Where is Granada CF vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Celta Vigo part of?
Granada CF vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 39% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Granada CF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Granada CF and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Celta Vigo?
Record (3 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 1 | Celta Vigo 2W.
What form are Granada CF and Celta Vigo in?
Granada CF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Celta Vigo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Granada CF's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Granada CF Win
39%
2.54
25%
3.96
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.80
1.36
Celta Vigo xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.36 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Granada CF come into this having played 36 games, going 4W 9D 23L for 0.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Celta Vigo sit at 1.03 PPG from 36 outings (9W 10D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Celta Vigo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Granada CF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Granada CF's home form reads 4W 6D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.58 PPG overall — Granada CF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Celta Vigo have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Granada CF are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 36 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Current Season
Celta Vigo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 4W 9D 23L in their last 36 games (0.58 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Celta Vigo away?
Granada CF's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 1.00 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Celta Vigo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Granada CF's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Granada CF
1
Draws
3
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Celta Vigo?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Celta Vigo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Granada CF 1-2 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Granada CF 56%, Celta Vigo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Granada CF) and 67% (Celta Vigo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Granada CF have failed to score in 28% of games; Celta Vigo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Celta Vigo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Granada CF's games and 61% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Granada CF's matches and 67% of Celta Vigo's.
Do Granada CF and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Celta Vigo defy the odds to beat Granada CF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Granada CF 1-2 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.44 xG and Celta Vigo 1.36 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.86 / defence 1.28 against Celta Vigo attack 0.97 / defence 1.19, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 39% | Draw 25% | Celta Vigo 35%, with Granada CF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 44%, Celta Vigo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Celta Vigo arrived the stronger side — 1.03 PPG against 0.58. Form held, and they took the win. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.