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Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Villarreal 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona beat Villarreal 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.50 xG and Villarreal 1.27 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Villarreal landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Villarreal attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 43% | Draw 25% | Villarreal 32%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 54%, Villarreal 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Villarreal's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Girona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights