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Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Valencia 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona beat Valencia 2-1 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.13 xG and Valencia 1.48 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.61 / defence 1.38 against Valencia attack 0.93 / defence 1.31, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 28% | Draw 27% | Valencia 44%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Girona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 53%, Valencia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Valencia's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 0.98 PPG, Valencia 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights