🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Girona and Valencia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona and Valencia finished level at 1-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.17 xG and Valencia 1.38 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Girona fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.14 / defence 1.26 against Valencia attack 0.97 / defence 1.34, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 56% | Draw 20% | Valencia 24%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 62%, Valencia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Valencia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Girona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights