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Sevilla cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Girona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sevilla beat Girona 0-2 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.51 xG and Sevilla 1.75 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Girona fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.90 / defence 1.32 against Sevilla attack 1.16 / defence 1.21, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Girona 34% | Draw 23% | Sevilla 43%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 58%, Sevilla 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sevilla's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 1.02 PPG, Sevilla 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Sevilla (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights