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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Girona and Real Sociedad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona and Real Sociedad finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.50 xG and Real Sociedad 1.31 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Real Sociedad attack 1.06 / defence 1.13, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 42% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 33%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 52%, Real Sociedad 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 1.10 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights