Girona 0-1 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Real Sociedad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Real Sociedad travel to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Real Sociedad — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Sociedad away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Girona are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Girona, 1 for Real Sociedad and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Girona in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Real Sociedad in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 53% versus Real Sociedad 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 60% | Real Sociedad 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.24 xG and Real Sociedad 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.231 / defence 0.973 | Real Sociedad attack 0.759 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.069. Real Sociedad's defence strength of 0.697 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Girona games / 47 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 44% | Draw 35% | Real Sociedad 21%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.27 | Draw 2.86 | Real Sociedad 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Girona are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Girona 50% | Real Sociedad 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 44% | Draw 35% | Real Sociedad 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Girona 1.24 / Real Sociedad 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.231 / def 0.973 | Real Sociedad attack 0.759 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Girona (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Real Sociedad xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Girona vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Girona 0 - 1 Real Sociedad.
Where is Girona vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Real Sociedad part of?
Girona vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 44% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Girona and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Real Sociedad?
Record (4 meetings): Girona 0W | Draws 3 | Real Sociedad 1W.
What form are Girona and Real Sociedad in?
Girona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Real Sociedad (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Girona's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Real Sociedad's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Real Sociedad's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
44%
2.27
35%
2.83
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Girona xG
Total xG
2.03
0.79
Real Sociedad xG
2.27
44%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
6%
16.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.9 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Girona and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Girona and 0.79 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona come into this having played 47 games, going 28W 9D 10L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 1.47 PPG from 47 outings (18W 15D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Real Sociedad — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Girona's home form reads 17W 3D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 1.52 points per game from 23 outings (9W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.23 scored and 1.00 conceded. Girona's scoring rate against Real Sociedad's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 28W 9D 10L in their last 47 games (1.98 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 18W 15D 14L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Real Sociedad away?
Girona's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.35 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Girona or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Girona and Real Sociedad runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 14 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Girona's record when hosting Real Sociedad specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Girona
4
Draws
3
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Real Sociedad?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 1, Real Sociedad have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Girona 1-1 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 48%, Real Sociedad 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Girona) and 39% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Real Sociedad in 48%; Real Sociedad in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Girona's recent matches and 44% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Girona's recent games and 39% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Real Sociedad defy the odds to beat Girona 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Girona 0-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.24 xG and Real Sociedad 0.79 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Girona fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.23 / defence 0.97 against Real Sociedad attack 0.76 / defence 0.70, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 44% | Draw 35% | Real Sociedad 21%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Real Sociedad win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 60%, Real Sociedad 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.47. Form was overturned, with Real Sociedad winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.