🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Girona and Real Madrid share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona and Real Madrid finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.21 xG and Real Madrid 1.98 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Real Madrid landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.87 / defence 1.34 against Real Madrid attack 1.31 / defence 1.01, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 23% | Draw 22% | Real Madrid 55%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 55%, Real Madrid 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Real Madrid's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights