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Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Osasuna 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona beat Osasuna 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.03 xG and Osasuna 1.06 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.79 / defence 1.33 against Osasuna attack 0.71 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 32% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 34%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Girona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 57%, Osasuna 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Osasuna's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 1.05 PPG, Osasuna 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights