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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Estadio Municipal de Montilivi plays host to Girona versus Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 10 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Girona (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Osasuna have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Osasuna have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Girona against 0.90 for Osasuna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Girona lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Osasuna winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 55% versus Osasuna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 57% | Osasuna 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.03 xG and Osasuna 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.786 / defence 1.334 | Osasuna attack 0.707 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.128. Girona's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Girona games / 56 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Girona 32% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 34%. Fair-value odds: Girona 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Osasuna 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Girona 40% | Osasuna 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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