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Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Mallorca 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona beat Mallorca 1-0 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.15 xG and Mallorca 1.16 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.97 / defence 1.19 against Mallorca attack 0.81 / defence 0.88, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 36% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 36%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 61%, Mallorca 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Mallorca's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Girona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights