Girona 1-2 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Getafe travel to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 February 2025, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Girona have posted 5W 1D 4L at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Getafe — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Getafe have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Girona 1.30 PPG, Getafe 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Girona have won 3, Getafe 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Girona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Getafe trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 52% versus Getafe 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 62% | Getafe 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.23 xG and Getafe 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.176 / defence 1.141 | Getafe attack 0.984 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.136. Getafe's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Girona games / 61 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 35% | Draw 27% | Getafe 38%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Getafe 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Getafe are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Girona 60% | Getafe 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Friday 14 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 35% | Draw 27% | Getafe 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Girona 1.23 / Getafe 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.176 / def 1.141 | Getafe attack 0.984 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Getafe (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Getafe xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Getafe kick off?
Girona vs Getafe kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 14 February 2025 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Getafe?
Girona 1 - 2 Getafe.
Where is Girona vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Getafe part of?
Girona vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 35% chance of winning, Getafe a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Girona and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Getafe?
Record (5 meetings): Girona 3W | Draws 0 | Getafe 2W.
What form are Girona and Getafe in?
Girona (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Getafe (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Girona's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Getafe's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
35%
2.83
27%
3.71
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Girona xG
Total xG
2.50
1.28
Getafe xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Girona and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Girona and 1.28 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Girona's recent record stands at 34W 10D 17L from 61 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 16W 22D 23L across 61 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Getafe heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Girona have managed 21W 3D 6L from 30 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Getafe's away record stands at 5W 10D 15L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.98 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 61 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Getafe in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 34W 10D 17L in their last 61 games (1.84 PPG), while Getafe have gone 16W 22D 23L in their last 61 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Getafe away?
Girona's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.20 PPG; Getafe away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2023, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Girona
1
Draws
4
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Getafe?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 3, Getafe have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Girona 1-1 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 50%, Getafe 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Girona) and 43% (Getafe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Getafe in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Girona's recent matches and 47% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Girona's matches and 43% of Getafe's.
Do Girona and Getafe tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Getafe in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Girona 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Girona 1-2 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.23 xG and Getafe 1.28 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.18 / defence 1.14 against Getafe attack 0.98 / defence 0.73, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 35% | Draw 27% | Getafe 38%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 62%, Getafe 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Getafe's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Getafe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Girona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.