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Stalemate at Girona's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona and Espanyol finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.02 xG and Espanyol 1.75 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Girona fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Espanyol landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.65 / defence 1.53 against Espanyol attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 21% | Draw 26% | Espanyol 53%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 54%, Espanyol 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Espanyol's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 0.98 PPG, Espanyol 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Espanyol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights