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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Girona 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Girona 1-2 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.12 xG and Celta Vigo 1.21 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.86 / defence 1.08 against Celta Vigo attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 33% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 38%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 54%, Celta Vigo 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 1.13 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights