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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Atletico Madrid run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Girona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico Madrid beat Girona 0-4 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.03 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.13 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Girona fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Atletico Madrid outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Atletico Madrid attack 0.88 / defence 0.85, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 33% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 38%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 59%, Atletico Madrid 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 1.63 PPG, Atletico Madrid 1.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Madrid win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights