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Dominant Girona run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Athletic Club.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona beat Athletic Club 3-0 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.37 xG and Athletic Club 1.27 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Athletic Club landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against Athletic Club attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 39% | Draw 27% | Athletic Club 34%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 54%, Athletic Club 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Athletic Club's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Girona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Girona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights