Girona 5-2 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Girona and Almeria meet at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 16:15 UK time.
Current Form
Girona's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Girona's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Almeria (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Almeria away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Girona's favour (2.20 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Girona's last 10 home games and Almeria's last 10 away games) — Girona have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Almeria in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 6.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2023, ended Girona 6–2 Almeria — a Girona win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Girona — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Almeria — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 68% and Almeria 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 60% | Almeria 64%). Note also that Almeria surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Girona recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.58 xG and Almeria 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.215 / defence 1.172 | Almeria attack 0.866 / defence 1.405. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.201. Almeria's defence rating of 1.405 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Girona's projected output up. Data: built from Girona's last 47 games and Almeria's last 47.
Result probabilities: Girona 66% | Draw 18% | Almeria 16%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.51 | Draw 5.48 | Almeria 6.41. The model has a clear lean to Girona (66%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.58 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Girona are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Girona's last 10 home games and Almeria's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Girona 60% (last 10 home games) | Almeria 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, matchday 10 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 66% | Draw 18% | Almeria 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Girona 2.58 / Almeria 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.215 / def 1.172 | Almeria attack 0.866 / def 1.405 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Girona (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.58
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Almeria xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Girona vs Almeria FAQs
What time does Girona vs Almeria kick off?
Girona vs Almeria kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Almeria?
Girona 5 - 2 Almeria.
Where is Girona vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Almeria part of?
Girona vs Almeria is a La Liga fixture (matchday 10) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 66% chance of winning, Almeria a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Girona and Almeria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Girona vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Girona's attack rating (1.22) and Almeria's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 2.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almeria's attack (0.87x) against Girona's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Girona's last 47 games and Almeria's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 3-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
66%
1.51
18%
5.48
16%
6.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.58
Girona xG
Total xG
3.80
1.22
Almeria xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.48
18%
Draw
6.41
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
8%
13.20
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
1%
84.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Girona vs Almeria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Girona and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Girona and 1.22 for Almeria, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Almeria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Girona come into this having played 47 games, going 20W 11D 16L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Almeria sit at 0.94 PPG from 47 outings (11W 11D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Girona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Almeria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Girona's home form reads 13W 3D 7L across their last 23 home games, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Almeria have taken 0.39 points per game from their last 23 away games (1W 6D 16L). That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Girona are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.28 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Almeria in 68%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Almeria
Blended
Girona (Home) vs Almeria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Girona
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Girona vs Almeria Form FAQs
What form are Girona and Almeria in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 20W 11D 16L in their last 47 games (1.51 PPG), while Almeria have gone 11W 11D 25L in their last 47 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Almeria away?
Girona's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.83 PPG; Almeria away: 0.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Girona won Girona 6-2 Almeria on 17 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Girona have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Almeria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Girona
1
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Girona vs Almeria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Almeria?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Girona have won 2, Almeria have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Girona and Almeria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 January 2024: Almeria 0-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Almeria?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Girona, 70% for Almeria — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Girona and 65% for Almeria. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almeria in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Girona vs Almeria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Girona and Almeria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Girona's games and 70% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Girona and Almeria matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Girona's matches and 65% of Almeria's.
Do Girona and Almeria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Girona's recent matches and 74% of Almeria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Girona run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Almeria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Almeria 5-2 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.58 xG and Almeria 1.22 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.22 / defence 1.17 against Almeria attack 0.87 / defence 1.41, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 66% | Draw 18% | Almeria 16%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 60%, Almeria 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Almeria's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Girona (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Almeria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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