Las Palmas 0-1 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Las Palmas take on Rayo Vallecano.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rayo Vallecano make the trip to Estadio de Gran Canaria to face Las Palmas in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Las Palmas (all games): 3W 2D 4L across 9 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.22 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 0.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas have gone 2W 2D 0L this season (4 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Gran Canaria. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.22 — Las Palmas are significantly better at Estadio de Gran Canaria than their overall form suggests.
Rayo Vallecano have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayo Vallecano's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.22 for Las Palmas, 1.30 for Rayo Vallecano — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Rayo Vallecano — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Las Palmas 33% | Rayo Vallecano 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 22% | Rayo Vallecano 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 0.93 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.743 / defence 0.863 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.927 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.201. Las Palmas's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Las Palmas games / 47 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 32% | Draw 35% | Rayo Vallecano 33%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Rayo Vallecano 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Las Palmas 50% | Rayo Vallecano 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 32% | Draw 35% | Rayo Vallecano 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Las Palmas 0.93 / Rayo Vallecano 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.743 / def 0.863 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.927 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Rayo Vallecano xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano?
Las Palmas 0 - 1 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 32% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.89 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Las Palmas's attack at 0.74x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (0.93x) against Las Palmas's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.12
35%
2.89
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
1.90
0.96
Rayo Vallecano xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
13%
7.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 14.4 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Las Palmas and 0.96 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Las Palmas come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 2D 4L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rayo Vallecano sit at 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Las Palmas against 1.44 for Rayo Vallecano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Las Palmas's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Las Palmas are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rayo Vallecano have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Las Palmas come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Las Palmas are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Rayo Vallecano in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Las Palmas's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 2.00 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Las Palmas or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Las Palmas have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Las Palmas have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rayo Vallecano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Las Palmas
0
Draws
2
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 2, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Las Palmas 0-1 Rayo Vallecano.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Las Palmas tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rayo Vallecano tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 50%, Rayo Vallecano 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Las Palmas and 25% for Rayo Vallecano.
On the defensive side: Las Palmas keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Rayo Vallecano in 50%; Rayo Vallecano in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 25% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Las Palmas's recent games and 25% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Las Palmas 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Las Palmas 0-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 0.93 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.96 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Las Palmas fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.74 / defence 0.86 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.93 / defence 0.83, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 32% | Draw 35% | Rayo Vallecano 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Rayo Vallecano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 22%, Rayo Vallecano 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.22 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.