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Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Alaves 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Girona beat Alaves 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.02 xG and Alaves 1.26 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alaves landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.84 / defence 1.45 against Alaves attack 0.76 / defence 0.84, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Girona 29% | Draw 30% | Alaves 41%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Girona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 57%, Alaves 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Girona's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Alaves's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Girona 0.98 PPG, Alaves 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights