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Poisson model rates Alaves at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Girona welcome Alaves to Estadio Municipal de Montilivi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Girona's home record at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi: 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Alaves have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Alaves's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Girona's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Girona, 1 for Alaves and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Alaves winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Girona in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Alaves in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 55% versus Alaves 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 57% | Alaves 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.02 xG and Alaves 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.842 / defence 1.448 | Alaves attack 0.758 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.152. Data: 49 Girona games / 49 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Girona 29% | Draw 30% | Alaves 41%. Fair-value odds: Girona 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Alaves 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Girona 40% | Alaves 30% BTTS from recent games.

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