Getafe 0-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Getafe and Mallorca meet at Estadio Coliseum in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Getafe have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's home record at Estadio Coliseum: 3W 5D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Coliseum.
Mallorca (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Getafe lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Mallorca winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Getafe half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 42% versus Mallorca 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 31% | Mallorca 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.11 xG and Mallorca 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.755 / defence 0.790 | Mallorca attack 0.958 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.144. Getafe's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Getafe's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Getafe games / 56 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 41% | Draw 31% | Mallorca 28%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Mallorca 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Getafe at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Getafe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Getafe 40% | Mallorca 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Coliseum • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 41% | Draw 31% | Mallorca 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Getafe 1.11 / Mallorca 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.755 / def 0.790 | Mallorca attack 0.958 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Getafe (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Mallorca xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Mallorca kick off?
Getafe vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Estadio Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Mallorca?
Getafe 0 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Getafe vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Mallorca part of?
Getafe vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 41% chance of winning, Mallorca a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Getafe and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Mallorca?
Record (6 meetings): Getafe 2W | Draws 2 | Mallorca 2W.
What form are Getafe and Mallorca in?
Getafe (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Mallorca (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Getafe's attack rating (0.76) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.96x) against Getafe's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
41%
2.43
31%
3.25
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Getafe xG
Total xG
1.98
0.86
Mallorca xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Getafe and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Getafe and 0.86 for Mallorca, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Getafe come into this having played 55 games, going 13W 20D 22L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mallorca sit at 1.20 PPG from 55 outings (16W 18D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Getafe against 1.20 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Getafe's home form reads 10W 9D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Getafe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mallorca have taken 0.96 points per game from 26 outings (6W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Getafe are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.91 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 55 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 13W 20D 22L in their last 55 games (1.07 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 16W 18D 21L in their last 55 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Mallorca away?
Getafe's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.50 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Getafe
2
Draws
4
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Getafe have won 4, Mallorca have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Getafe 3-1 Mallorca.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 38%, Mallorca 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Getafe and 38% for Mallorca.
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 35% of games; Mallorca in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Getafe's recent matches and 50% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Getafe's recent games and 38% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Mallorca tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Getafe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Getafe 0-1 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.11 xG and Mallorca 0.86 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Getafe fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.76 / defence 0.79 against Mallorca attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 41% | Draw 31% | Mallorca 28%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 31%, Mallorca 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mallorca's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.07 PPG, Mallorca 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.