Getafe 1-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Getafe and Cadiz meet at Estadio Coliseum in La Liga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 November 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Getafe have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Estadio Coliseum this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Coliseum. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Getafe are significantly better at Estadio Coliseum than their overall form suggests.
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Getafe, 0.70 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Getafe 1W, Cadiz 0W, 3D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Getafe — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cadiz — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 47% versus Cadiz 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 41% | Cadiz 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.41 xG and Cadiz 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.825 / defence 0.809 | Cadiz attack 0.807 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.215. Data: 49 Getafe games / 49 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 51% | Draw 28% | Cadiz 21%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Cadiz 4.76. Getafe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Getafe at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Getafe if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Getafe 50% | Cadiz 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Coliseum • Kick-off: Monday 6 Nov 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 51% | Draw 28% | Cadiz 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Getafe 1.41 / Cadiz 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.825 / def 0.809 | Cadiz attack 0.807 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Getafe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Cadiz xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Cadiz kick off?
Getafe vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 6 November 2023 at Estadio Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Cadiz?
Getafe 1 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Getafe vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Cadiz part of?
Getafe vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 51% chance of winning, Cadiz a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Getafe and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Cadiz?
Record (4 meetings): Getafe 1W | Draws 3 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Getafe and Cadiz in?
Getafe (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Getafe's attack rating (0.82) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.81x) against Getafe's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.55
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.20
0.79
Cadiz xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
5%
19.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Getafe and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Getafe and 0.79 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Getafe have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 12W 18D 19L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz's form line: 12W 16D 21L from 49 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Getafe against 1.06 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Getafe have posted 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (9W 9D 6L).
On the road, Cadiz have gone 3W 7D 14L from 24 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Getafe are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.82 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 49 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 12W 18D 19L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 12W 16D 21L in their last 49 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Cadiz away?
Getafe's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.50 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Getafe or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cadiz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Getafe won 4-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Getafe
3
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Getafe have won 2, Cadiz have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Cadiz 1-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Cadiz?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Getafe see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 46%, Cadiz 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Getafe and 29% for Cadiz.
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 33% of games; Cadiz in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Getafe's recent matches and 38% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Getafe's recent games and 29% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Cadiz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Cadiz 1-0 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.41 xG and Cadiz 0.79 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.82 / defence 0.81 against Cadiz attack 0.81 / defence 1.15, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 51% | Draw 28% | Cadiz 21%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 41%, Cadiz 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cadiz's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.10 PPG, Cadiz 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.