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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Espanyol and Valencia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Espanyol and Valencia drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 2.11 xG and Valencia 0.90 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Valencia outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Valencia attack 0.83 / defence 1.30, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 65% | Draw 21% | Valencia 14%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 42%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Valencia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.21 PPG, Valencia 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Espanyol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights