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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Espanyol and Leganes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Espanyol and Leganes finished level at 1-1 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.25 xG and Leganes 1.13 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Leganes attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 39% | Draw 28% | Leganes 33%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 50%, Leganes 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Leganes's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Espanyol 0.83 PPG, Leganes 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights