Espanyol 1-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Espanyol at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Espanyol face Girona.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Espanyol welcome Girona to RCDE Stadium in La Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Monday 10 March 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Espanyol have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Espanyol have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Girona — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Girona's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Espanyol) versus 1.00 (Girona). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Espanyol have won 0, Girona 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2024, ended Espanyol 1–4 Girona — a Girona win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Espanyol in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Girona in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 60% versus Girona 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 44% | Girona 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.23 xG and Girona 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.816 / defence 0.992 | Girona attack 0.825 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.120. Data: built from Espanyol's last 25 games and Girona's last 64.
Result probabilities: Espanyol 43% | Draw 29% | Girona 28%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 2.31 | Draw 3.44 | Girona 3.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Espanyol at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Espanyol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Espanyol's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Espanyol 70% (last 10 home games) | Girona 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 10 March 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 43% | Draw 29% | Girona 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Espanyol 1.23 / Girona 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.816 / def 0.992 | Girona attack 0.825 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Girona xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Espanyol vs Girona FAQs
What time does Espanyol vs Girona kick off?
Espanyol vs Girona kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 10 March 2025 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Girona?
Espanyol 1 - 1 Girona.
Where is Espanyol vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Girona part of?
Espanyol vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 43% chance of winning, Girona a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Espanyol and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Espanyol vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Espanyol's attack at 0.82x the league average against Girona's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Espanyol's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Espanyol's last 25 games and Girona's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
43%
2.31
29%
3.44
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.14
0.92
Girona xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
8%
12.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Espanyol vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Espanyol and 0.92 for Girona, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Espanyol come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 6D 12L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Girona sit at 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (9W 4D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Espanyol on 1.08 PPG, Girona on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Espanyol's home form reads 6W 4D 2L across their last 12 home games, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Espanyol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Girona have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 12 away games (3W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Espanyol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Espanyol are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.32 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Espanyol have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Blended
Girona
Blended
Espanyol (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Espanyol
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Espanyol vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Espanyol and Girona in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 games (1.08 PPG), while Girona have gone 9W 4D 12L in their last 25 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Girona away?
Espanyol's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 1.83 PPG; Girona away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from January 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 16 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Nov 2024, when Girona won Girona 4-1 Espanyol.
Espanyol's record when hosting Girona specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Espanyol
3
Draws
3
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Espanyol vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Girona?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Espanyol have won 0, Girona have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 January 2026: Espanyol 0-2 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Espanyol and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 75%, Girona 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Espanyol) and 42% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Girona in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Espanyol vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Espanyol and Girona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Espanyol's recent matches and 33% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Espanyol and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Espanyol's recent games and 42% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Espanyol's recent matches and 75% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Espanyol and Girona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol and Girona finished level at 1-1 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.23 xG and Girona 0.92 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.82 / defence 0.99 against Girona attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 25/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 43% | Draw 29% | Girona 28%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 44%, Girona 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.08 PPG, Girona 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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