🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Girona at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Girona host Celta Vigo at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Girona — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Girona have posted 5W 1D 4L at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Celta Vigo's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Girona at 0.90 PPG versus Celta Vigo's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Girona register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Celta Vigo in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Girona have won 2, Celta Vigo 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Girona in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).

Celta Vigo in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 52% versus Celta Vigo 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 62% | Celta Vigo 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.92 xG and Celta Vigo 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.127 / defence 1.181 | Celta Vigo attack 0.927 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.148. Data: 63 Girona games / 63 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Girona 53% | Draw 22% | Celta Vigo 25%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Celta Vigo 4.00. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Girona 60% | Celta Vigo 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights