🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Espanyol defy the odds to beat Atletico Madrid 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Espanyol beat Atletico Madrid 2-1 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.15 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.19 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Espanyol beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 35% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 37%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Espanyol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 40%, Atletico Madrid 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Espanyol winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights