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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Espanyol and Atletico Madrid share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Espanyol and Atletico Madrid drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 0.89 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.36 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.17 / defence 0.76, drawn from 27/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Espanyol 24% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 48%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 44%, Atletico Madrid 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Espanyol's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights