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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Villarreal cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Elche.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Elche 1-3 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.54 xG and Villarreal 1.14 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Villarreal outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 1.19 / defence 0.84 against Villarreal attack 1.26 / defence 0.92, drawn from 17/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 46% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 27%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Villarreal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 47%, Villarreal 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Villarreal's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Elche (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights