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Prediction vindicated as Elche edge out Valencia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Elche beat Valencia 1-0 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.46 xG and Valencia 1.25 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Valencia attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 42% | Draw 26% | Valencia 32%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 60%, Valencia 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Valencia's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Elche 0.97 PPG, Valencia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Elche win broke the near-deadlock. Elche (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights