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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Elche and Sevilla share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Elche and Sevilla finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.74 xG and Sevilla 1.04 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sevilla outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 1.12 / defence 1.00 against Sevilla attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 53% | Draw 26% | Sevilla 21%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 47%, Sevilla 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Sevilla's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Elche 1.21 PPG, Sevilla 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Elche (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights