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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Elche and Real Madrid share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 13, as Elche and Real Madrid drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.01 xG and Real Madrid 1.19 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Elche beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Madrid outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.80 / defence 0.85 against Real Madrid attack 1.26 / defence 0.92, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 31% | Draw 29% | Real Madrid 40%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 33%, Real Madrid 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Real Madrid's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Elche (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Madrid (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights