🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Elche run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rayo Vallecano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Elche beat Rayo Vallecano 4-0 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.38 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.82 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Elche beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rayo Vallecano landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 1.03 / defence 0.90 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 50% | Draw 29% | Rayo Vallecano 22%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 44%, Rayo Vallecano 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Elche 1.19 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Elche win broke the near-deadlock. Elche (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights