Elche vs Levante – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Elche at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Elche vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Elche versus Levante in La Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 7 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Elche have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Elche have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Elche at this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Levante (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Levante have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Levante are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Elche 1W, Levante 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 2–3 with Levante winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Elche goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Levante goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Elche 71% versus Levante 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 58% | Levante 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.46 xG and Levante 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.852 / defence 1.352 | Levante attack 0.769 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.138. Data: 41 Elche games / 41 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 43% | Draw 26% | Levante 31%. Fair-value odds: Elche 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Levante 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Elche as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levante (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Elche if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Elche 60% | Levante 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 43% | Draw 26% | Levante 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Elche 1.46 / Levante 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.852 / def 1.352 | Levante attack 0.769 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Elche (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Elche xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Levante xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Levante kick off?
Elche vs Levante is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027.
What competition is Elche vs Levante part of?
Elche vs Levante is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 43% chance of winning, Levante a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Elche and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Levante?
Record (4 meetings): Elche 1W | Draws 1 | Levante 2W.
What form are Elche and Levante in?
Elche (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Levante (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Elche's attack at 0.85x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.77x) against Elche's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
43%
2.31
26%
3.86
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Elche xG
Total xG
2.64
1.18
Levante xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Elche and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Elche and 1.18 for Levante, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Elche have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 10W 14D 17L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Elche, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levante's form line: 12W 10D 19L from 41 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Elche against 1.12 for Levante. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Elche have posted 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (9W 8D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Elche are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Levante have gone 4W 5D 11L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Elche come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Elche are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.27 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Elche have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Early Season
Levante
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Levante in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 10W 14D 17L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while Levante have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Levante away?
Elche's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 1.75 PPG; Levante away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levante won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Elche have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Levante — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Elche
1
Draws
2
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Elche have won 1, Levante have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Levante 3-2 Elche.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Levante?
Levante have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 55%, Levante 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Elche) and 45% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Elche keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Levante in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Elche's recent matches and 40% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Elche vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Elche's recent games and 45% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Levante tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Levante in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.