Alaves vs Celta Vigo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alaves and Celta Vigo meet at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Alaves have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio Mendizorrotza than their overall form suggests.
Celta Vigo have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Celta Vigo, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2026, ended 1–2 with Celta Vigo winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Celta Vigo have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alaves 62% and Celta Vigo 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 51% | Celta Vigo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.11 xG and Celta Vigo 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 1.040 / defence 0.982 | Celta Vigo attack 0.682 / defence 0.647. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.274. Celta Vigo's defence strength of 0.647 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Alaves games / 47 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 40% | Draw 34% | Celta Vigo 26%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Celta Vigo 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 60% | Celta Vigo 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 40% | Draw 34% | Celta Vigo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Alaves 1.11 / Celta Vigo 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 1.040 / def 0.982 | Celta Vigo attack 0.682 / def 0.647 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Alaves (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Celta Vigo xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Alaves vs Celta Vigo is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Where is Alaves vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Celta Vigo part of?
Alaves vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 40% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Alaves and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Celta Vigo?
Record (9 meetings): Alaves 2W | Draws 2 | Celta Vigo 5W.
What form are Alaves and Celta Vigo in?
Alaves (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alaves's attack rating (1.04) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (0.68x) against Alaves's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
40%
2.53
34%
2.90
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.96
0.85
Celta Vigo xG
2.53
40%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Alaves and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Alaves and 0.85 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alaves's recent record stands at 14W 12D 21L from 47 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 14L across 47 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Alaves against 1.38 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 9W 6D 8L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 8W 11D 4L across 23 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.34 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 14W 12D 21L in their last 47 games (1.15 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 16W 17D 14L in their last 47 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Celta Vigo away?
Celta Vigo's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.43 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 4-0 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Alaves
2
Draws
5
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Celta Vigo?
From 9 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Celta Vigo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Celta Vigo 2-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Celta Vigo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 65%, Celta Vigo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Alaves) and 35% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo in 39%; Celta Vigo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Celta Vigo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Alaves's games and 56% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alaves vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Alaves's recent games and 35% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.