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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Elche run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Girona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Elche beat Girona 3-0 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.34 xG and Girona 0.96 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Elche beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Girona landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.91 / defence 0.94 against Girona attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 45% | Draw 28% | Girona 27%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 36%, Girona 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Girona's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Elche 1.14 PPG, Girona 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Elche win broke the near-deadlock. Elche (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights