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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Elche edge out Getafe 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Elche beat Getafe 1-0 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.04 xG and Getafe 0.95 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Getafe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Getafe attack 0.76 / defence 0.70, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Elche 37% | Draw 31% | Getafe 32%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 61%, Getafe 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Elche's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Getafe's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Elche 1.08 PPG, Getafe 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Elche win broke the near-deadlock. Elche (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights